無(wú)論中國(guó)政府是否相信奧巴馬政府關(guān)于美國(guó)樂(lè)意接受中國(guó)成為一個(gè)對(duì)等大國(guó)的說(shuō)辭，中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人面臨的戰(zhàn)略選擇都是清晰的：既可以謀求地區(qū)主導(dǎo)地位并通過(guò)暴力對(duì)抗的方式將美國(guó)趕出亞太，也可以與美國(guó)開(kāi)展合作并通過(guò)維持亞太地區(qū)權(quán)力均勢(shì)避免惡性戰(zhàn)略爭(zhēng)斗，以確保雙方之間的和平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。第一種選項(xiàng)至少在可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)無(wú)疑是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的。取得地區(qū)主導(dǎo)權(quán)從長(zhǎng)期看或許會(huì)是中國(guó)的終極目標(biāo)，但不會(huì)被視作中國(guó)在21世紀(jì)前期需要認(rèn)真考慮的目標(biāo)，這是由當(dāng)前美國(guó)在亞太地區(qū)的存在和影響力決定的，也是因?yàn)樵摰貐^(qū)各國(guó)力量的消長(zhǎng)變化仍在繼續(xù)界定中國(guó)的權(quán)力范圍。中國(guó)的日益強(qiáng)大已經(jīng)促使周邊國(guó)家采取了一些制衡行動(dòng)，包括重新與美國(guó)結(jié)盟，在這種情況下，中國(guó)的實(shí)際行動(dòng)以及其他國(guó)家對(duì)中國(guó)意圖的認(rèn)知尤為重要。盡管中國(guó)必須堅(jiān)定地捍衛(wèi)其真正的核心利益，但是在各種外交與安全政策上（包括與他國(guó)的領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端上）繼續(xù)保持戰(zhàn)略克制，預(yù)防性地消除其他國(guó)家的制衡動(dòng)機(jī)，絕對(duì)符合中國(guó)利益。在地區(qū)環(huán)境中被孤立于對(duì)中國(guó)沒(méi)有好處。

事實(shí)上，二戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)創(chuàng)建和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國(guó)際體系以及美國(guó)在亞太安全中的角色，為經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和亞太穩(wěn)定提供了重要支撐。雖然中國(guó)政府對(duì)其中的一些規(guī)則可能并不滿意，也想在制定和修訂規(guī)則的過(guò)程中享有更大的話語(yǔ)權(quán)，但中國(guó)還是從中獲益匪淺。盡管中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)在亞洲這塊本國(guó)安身之地增強(qiáng)針對(duì)自己的軍事和戰(zhàn)略布局感到不安，中國(guó)也仍然是過(guò)去幾十年中美國(guó)軍事存在所塑造的地區(qū)穩(wěn)定的受益者。作為現(xiàn)實(shí)主義者，中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最終還是會(huì)認(rèn)清權(quán)力對(duì)比的現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況，那就是中美兩國(guó)都不可能獨(dú)自成為地區(qū)主導(dǎo)力量，權(quán)力均衡是維護(hù)地區(qū)和平與穩(wěn)定的唯一出路。雖然美國(guó)維持其亞太霸權(quán)角色變得日益困難，但中國(guó)在崛起為一個(gè)全球大國(guó)的道路上也仍然面臨著來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)外的各種巨大挑戰(zhàn)，很難在亞洲奉行擴(kuò)張主義政策。中國(guó)最大的挑戰(zhàn)并非來(lái)自美國(guó)，而是來(lái)自本國(guó)內(nèi)部。由于深刻而令人擔(dān)憂的內(nèi)部原因，中國(guó)也是一個(gè)脆弱的崛起國(guó)。為確保未來(lái)的崛起，實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)夢(mèng)，它必須首先處理好包括腐敗、權(quán)力濫用和社會(huì)不公等在內(nèi)的各種國(guó)內(nèi)問(wèn)題。在中國(guó)解決這些國(guó)內(nèi)難題之前，其未來(lái)崛起前景仍面臨著不確定性。正是從這個(gè)角度出發(fā)，中國(guó)國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平才一再?gòu)?qiáng)調(diào)“太平洋兩岸有足夠空間容納中美兩個(gè)大國(guó)”。65 正是從自身利益出發(fā)，中國(guó)努力通過(guò)構(gòu)建“新型大國(guó)關(guān)系”來(lái)穩(wěn)定同美國(guó)的關(guān)系，而這也正是美國(guó)的利益所在，所以，奧巴馬政府對(duì)習(xí)近平的努力進(jìn)行了積極回應(yīng)。

注釋

1 "China, U.S. agree to build new type of relations", Xinhua, June 7, 2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-06/08/c_132442379. htm.

2 He Yafei, "The Trust Deficit: How the U.S. 'pivot' to Asia looks from Beijing",  Foreign Policy, May 13, 2013, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/13/how_china_sees_the_us_pivot_to_asia.

3 Jia Qingguo, "Learning to Live with the Hegemon: Evolution of China's Policy toward the US since the End of the Cold War", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 14, no. 44, August 2005, p. 395.

4 Liu Jiafei, "Sino-US Relations and building a Harmonious World", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 18, no. 60, June 2009, p. 479.

5 Jonas Parello-Plesner, "The G 2: no good for China and for world governance",  PacNet #31A, April 30, 2009.

6 "Wen rejects allegation of China, US monopolizing world affairs in future", Xinhua, May 21, 2009.

7 一項(xiàng)統(tǒng)計(jì)表明：“自1500年以來(lái)，崛起國(guó)與支配國(guó)的15次遭遇和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中，有11次的結(jié)果是戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。” Graham T. Allison Jr., "Obama and Xi Must Think Broadly to Avoid a Classic Trap", New York Times, June 6, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/opinion/obama-and-xi-must-think-broadly-to-avoid-a-classic-trap.html?emc=tnt&tntemail0=y&_r=0.

8 Suisheng Zhao, "Shaping the Regional Context of China's Rise: How the Obama Administration brought back Hedge in its Engagement with China", Journal of Contemporary China, 21:75, 2012, p. 386.

9 James B. Steinberg, "China's Arrival: The long March to Global Power", Keynote Speech at Center for New America Security, September 24, 2009, http://www.cnas.org/files/multimedia/documents/Deputy%20Secretary%20James%20Steinberg's%20September%2024,%202009%20Keynote%20Address%20Transcript.pdf.

10 Josh Rogin, "The end of the concept of 'strategic reassurance'?", Foreign Policy, November 6, 2009, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/11/06/the_end_of_the_concept_of_strategic_reassurance.

11 David M. Lampton, "A New Type of Major-Power Relationship: Seeking a Durable Foundation for U.S.-China Ties", Asia Policy,  no.16, July 2013, p. 52.

12 Brad Glosserman, "A 'new type of great power relations'? Hardly", PacNet #40 Monday, June 10, 2013.

13 John Chan, "China Seeks 'New Type of Great Power Relations', Beijing will not Challenge US Global Dominance", Global Research, June 10, 2013, http://www.globalresearch.ca/china-seeks-new-type-of-great-power-relations-china-will-not-challenge-us-global-dominance/5338462.

14 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院中國(guó)特色社會(huì)主義理論體系研究中心：“構(gòu)建新型大國(guó)關(guān)系”， 《人民日?qǐng)?bào)》, 2013年6月4日，第7 版。

15 Yang Jiechi, "Win-Win Cooperation", Washington Post, July 9, 2013, p. 13.

16 Hillary Clinton, "Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace China Conference", March 7, 2012, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/03/185402.htm.

17 White House News Release,  "Remarks By Tom Donilon, National Security Advisor to the President: The United States and the Asia-Pacific in 2013", March 11, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/11/remarks-tom-donilon-national-security-advisory-president-united-states-a.

18 Office of Press Secretary, The White House, "Background Conference Call by Senior Administration Officials on the President's Meetings with President Xi Jinping of China", June 4, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/04/background-conference-call-senior-administration-officials-presidents-me.

19 "Remarks by President Obama and Vice President Xi of the People's Republic of China Before Bilateral Meeting, February 2012", http://www.cfr.org/china/remarks-president-obama-vice-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-before-bilateral-meeting-february-2012/p27391.

20 田曾佩：《改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)的中國(guó)外交》，北京：世界知識(shí)出版社，1993年，第6～7頁(yè)。

21 謝益顯：《當(dāng)代中國(guó)外交史》，北京：中國(guó)青年出版社，1996年，第430頁(yè)。

22 You Ji, "China and North Korea: A Fragile Relationship of Strategic Convenience", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 10, no. 28, August 2001, p. 396.

23 Wang Yong, "China, ASEAN Stress Peace: Summit Agrees on Approach", China Daily, December 17, 1997, p.1.

24 Greg Sheridan, "China wins as 'US neglects region'", The Australian, September 3, 2007. 

25 Elizabeth Economy, "China's Rise in Southeast Asia: Implications for the United States", Journal of Contemporary China, 14:44, August 2005, p.424.

26 陳岳：“中國(guó)當(dāng)前外交環(huán)境及應(yīng)對(duì)”, 《現(xiàn)代國(guó)際關(guān)系》，2011年第11期, 第 4頁(yè)。

27 Wu Xinbo, "Forging Sino-U.S, Partnership in the 21st Century: Opportunities and Challenges," Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 21, no. 75, May 2012, p. 393.

28 David F. Gordon, "A trade opportunity Washington shouldn't pass up",  Washington Post, November 10, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-trade-opportunity-washington-shouldnt-pass-up/2011/11/10/gIQA1K3t9M_story.html?sub=AR.

29 Editorial, "Hillary reinforces US-China mistrust", Global Times, September 4, 2012, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/730902.shtml.

30 Hillary Clinton, "America's Pacific Century", Foreign Policy, November 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century?page=full%23.TpQwzShztTI.email.

31 Shangri-La Security Dialogue, As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta, Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore, Saturday, June 02, 2012, http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1681.

32 Jane Perlez, "Diplomatic Memo, Political Worries in U.S. and China Color Obama Aide's Beijing Visit", New York Times, July 25, 2012, July 25, 2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/world/asia/china-an-eager-host-to-donilon-diplomatic-memo.html?_r=1&ref=asia.